2009 Season: Fearless Predictions

The start of the 2009 season is finally upon us. With radical rule changes such as the introduction of slick tires, completely new aerodynamic regulations, and KERS (Kinetic Energy Recovery Systems) in place, the championship was sure to be shaken up. But what's astounding is that after an impossibly close field in 2008, there seems to be even less of a difference in performance between the teams this year. Expect an extremely hard fought battle in the midfield.

Here are my fearless predictions for the driver's championship:

1. Kimi Raikkonen - Last year is behind him. He is very comfortable with this year's car and says it's like a racing car used to be years ago. The Iceman cometh.
   
2. Fernando Alonso - Is there any better driver to take a car that is merely 'good' and make it a championship contender?
   
3. Robert Kubica - BMW's plan has been to fight for wins and the championship this year, and Kubica can do it if he has the car.
   
4. Jenson Button - He's always had the talent but never had the car. If Brawn GP can find funding to develop the car at the same pace as their rivals, this could be Jenson's year.
   
5. Lewis Hamilton - Lewis has proven himself, but McLaren seem to be struggling this year. While they are sure to find pace in the car, will it be soon enough?
   
6. Felipe Massa - He drove like a champion in the second half of last year, but Kimi's resurgence could get the better of his emotions.
   
7. Jarno Trulli - While he is a very quick driver with a car that has surprised in Winter testing, Toyota will be hard pressed to consistently give Trulli a competitive car throughout the season.
   
8. Heikki Kovalainen - He can be as good as Hamilton, but he'll need better luck than he had last year, and he'll need McLaren to let him reach his potential.
   
9. Sebastian Vettel - Even though Red Bull seems to be down in the midfield, this kid can and will drive anything faster than was thought possible. Keep an eye on him.
   
10. Nick Heidfeld - Quick Nick will be a great second driver in a great team.

One driver who can't go unmentioned is Nico Rosberg. He is a true talent that can win races if given the proper equipment. Let's hope that Williams have done their homework and produced a car worthy of the old days.

Brawn GP Impresses Immediately

"If everyone knew how much fuel we had on board, they would be surprised. Even our engine partner Mercedes didn't believe it when we told them." said Ross Brawn as he spoke to Auto Motor und Sport about the pace of the BGP 001 on its first proper test day.

This basically sums up the performance of Brawn GP's 2009 challenger right out of the box, as Rubens Barrichello backed up Monday's performance with the third best time of the day. While still early days, it's impressive to see that the reliability issues with this car have been almost nothing to speak of. And as miles are logged and the setup is refined, the pace can only improve.

It can almost be said that tumultuous as it was, Brawn GP has had an ideal timeline. Having started work on the car before the other teams and with Honda's resources, the fundamental design was done properly. Now, with F1 budgets being slashed and a ban on in-season testing, Ross and his crew stand a very good chance of matching the development pace of the top teams. It wouldn't be surprising to see some sponsors on the car after the Australian GP.

Brawn GP Hits the Track

Just minutes after the announcement that the former Honda team has become Brawn GP, Jenson Button shook down the new BGP 001 at Silverstone. The car features a simple, yet striking new white livery with black and fluorescent yellow accents. The most surprising thing is that this new car does not look like it was the product of a team that was in doubt for the last three months. The front wing detail is one of the most intricate we've seen so far, and the rest of the car already looks fairly developed. I'll even say that this, to me, is the best looking car we've seen for 2009. One hopes that the car will go as well as it looks, and some seem to think so already. A poll on the official Formula 1 website shows that more than half the people surveyed think the car will score more points than last year.

While it is no surprise that the car is using Mercedes power, it is notable that the car uses a modified version of the gearbox that was to be used with the Honda-powered RA109. Noticeably absent is the KERS warning sticker meaning the team will not be running the system initially like many other privateer teams. Continuity is crucial in a team like this, so Rubens will be in the cockpit for what is most likely his last season. We'll see how things turn out for the new team in about three weeks...

Danica Patrick Unlikely for USF1 Seat

Since the first reports of USF1 came to light, media darling Danica Patrick has been linked to the team. Reading the headlines, one would think contracts had already been signed for her to drive the car: USF1 Confirms Interest in Danica Patrick, and Formula One Seat Beckons for Patrick. To quote Peter Windsor, "We are looking at all American drivers with the right credentials and that includes Danica." Adding fuel to the fire, Ken Anderson says, "She's great and gets a lot of press. Indy Racing League chairman Tony George would be pretty mad with me if I took her out of the IRL but we'll see."

Chop up an interview and you can almost write the story yourself. USF1 have actually given very little detail about who will drive the car, other than the fact that they're looking at all the American drivers. While Danica's market value is second to none (as seen in the latest SI Swimsuit issue), the general consensus this writer sees is that it ends there.

Indeed, now that more interviews have been given to the media, we see that both parties are lukewarm on the idea. Danica says she's concerned that if a drive in F1 doesn't go ideally the first season then you "just open yourself up to criticism." And rightly so - anybody remember Michael Andretti in 1993? However, she seems to be more worried about a test conflicting with her IndyCar schedule or making her tired. This brings doubts about her ability to even commit to the sport of F1. Perhaps Peter Windsor himself best sums it up: "She has a very good record and obviously would be a good factor in terms of promotion. She raced Formula Ford in the UK very well, she knows all about racing in Europe and did a good job in everything she’s done. But one has to ask why, if she is that good for promotion, haven’t any of the other Formula One teams signed her up?"

We'd all love to see her test for the team. But if it doesn't work out then there's no shame having a decent career in IndyCar.

X-Honda to Race in Australia?

It seems like every couple of days the news changes with regard to the former Honda team. The big question on everyone's mind is: Will they be on the grid in Melbourne?

Honda have said that there were at least twelve potential bidders being considered for a buyout, but the big players have been dropping like flies. Peugeot-Citroen, David Richards, A1GP boss Tony Teixeira, and Richard Branson were reported to have been in talks with the Brackley team but have either had their bids rejected or, in most cases, withdrawn their bids, citing a further need for cost reduction in F1. Even Bernie Ecclestone had an offer to help with a management buyout refused.

With the March 29 deadline approaching, the only rumor that seems to have any validity is the management buyout by Ross Brawn and possibly Nick Fry. The team has said that the 2009 challenger is still being developed at the factory, and there are reports that the team could even show up to the last pre-season test. If this is true, then a Mercedes engine deal would have been completed some months ago. Engine deal or not, it is still unclear if we should expect to see the car running with KERS in the first part of the season. It's unlikely that Honda will allow their technology to be used without their name on the car, and maybe less likely that it would work with the Mercedes lump. But if the same package sold to Force India finds its way to the X-Honda then it would be a relatively easy plug-in.

Fingers crossed for Jenson and the rest of the team.

KERS

Of all the major changes to the regs for the 2009 season, KERS arguably presents the most significant challenge. It is uncharted territory for all, and the relative openness of the rules allow for a degree of innovation that hasn't been seen for many years.

One of the biggest challenges with KERS today is cost. In a time when major emphasis is being placed on cost cutting in F1, developing these systems is becoming an increasing portion of the budget even for the largest teams. Red Bull scrapped their system long ago for the one used by engine partner Renault due to cost reasons. And Williams has delayed the introduction of their system until the seventh race of the season at the earliest.

Equally challenging is the technical part and the safety aspect that goes along with it. At the Red Bull factory a fire broke out when a high voltage battery failed during testing, and a BMW mechanic was shocked when he touched the body of the F1.08B in early pre-season testing. These issues have most likely all been resolved, but you can still see the cautionary stickers on most cars.

Many teams (especially Ferrari) had said that they were behind schedule and may or may not use the system in Melbourne, although we are starting to hear less about this as time marches on, the aforementioned Williams team excepted. However, even with KERS functioning reliably, there are still trade-offs with weight and performance and it may or may not make sense depending on the circuit. Even though the car and driver have a combined minimum weight, the 30kg or so the system weighs means that there is that much less ballast to move in the car, which in turn affects weight distribution. Endless computer simulations will be run to improve lap times by valuable tenths of a second. As development progresses KERS will likely be seen in all cars at all tracks, but it will be exciting to see how the drama unfolds. That's what F1 is all about, right?

USF1

Formula 1 is full of rumors. Some believable, some not so much. (Alonso going to Ferrari any time soon is one that the British press can't seem to leave alone.) One that seemed to fall into the latter category surfaced a few months ago, about a new, All-American F1 team based in the NASCAR hub of the country, Charlotte, North Carolina. In the racing world there's more to Charlotte than Cup cars, but the whole thing just sounded absurd. There isn't even an F1 race on this continent for 2009.

Despite all this, the rumors resurfaced last week and were confirmed today that a USF1 car will be on the grid in 2010. Managing the team will be none other than the esteemed Peter Windsor, Speed commentator and most notably former team manager at Williams, where he helped win a world championship. Also leading the team will be Ken Anderson, a former designer and technical director in F1 and most recently an engineer in NASCAR and IndyCar. The team is even close to signing its first driver, rumored to be an American in a junior open-wheel series in Europe.

Speaking of drivers, put someone in the cockpit with a last name like Rahal or Andretti and I think you'll see F1 gain some major popularity in the US. Even Bernie might find it hard to add another venue in the Middle East instead of putting a race or two back in North America.

Major cost cutting in the sport makes this the right time for a new team to surface, even as big players like Honda are on the way out. Getting started with a standardized engine package and maybe even a customer chassis may not put you at the sharp end of the grid right away, but nobody expects to see a new team winning races right away - just look at Toyota.

Good luck guys. Make us proud.